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为应对交通系统的随机特性,提出一种考虑不确定性的单交叉口信号配时方法。首先应用季节性自回归平均移动-广义自回归条件异方差(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,SARIMA-GARCH)模型计算交叉口交通流的不确定性,然后根据得到的交通流不确定性特征,参考Webster模型,计算交叉口的信号配时参数,得到考虑交通流不确定性的单交叉口信号配时方案。最后,以南京市一交叉口为研究对象,应用实际数据,计算得到17种不同交通不确定性水平下的单交叉口配时参数,并采用Paramics仿真软件分析了各信号配时方案的性能,验证了所提方法的有效性。
Abstract：To deal with the stochastic nature of the traffic flow, a timing method for the isolated signalized intersection is proposed considering traffic uncertainty. First, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(SARIMA-GARCH) model is used to quantify the traffic uncertainty at each intersection. Then, based on the quantified uncertainty characteristic, the timing parameters is computed for the isolated intersection referring to the Webster method, obtaining the signal timing plan considering traffic uncertainty.Finally, taking an intersection in Nanjing as the example and using the real world traffic data, 17 timing plans are computed for the different traffic uncertainty levels. The performances of these timing plans are computed in Paramics software, validating the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.12194/j.ntu.20191008001
中图分类号:U491.54
引用信息:
[1]凌墨,吴桢,郭建华.考虑交通流不确定性的单交叉口信号配时方法[J],2020,19(01):33-41.DOI:10.12194/j.ntu.20191008001.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(61573106)